2011-2012 Fantasy Football Top Picks

NFL Football Analysis

You might not take me for a fantasy football fan. I wasn’t always, but my distinctly working class brother-in-law got me into the hobby. He wanted to challenge me with something I “wasn’t a natural at”. What he didn’t bank on was that I love statistics, and fantasy football is a game of statistics. My brother-by-marriage created a monster.

The 2011-2012 fantasy football top picks are Arian Foster, Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Ray Rice, and Lesean McCoy. Since these are your best decisions in the Top 6 positions in the draft, I wanted to discuss each and give you my opinions.

Arian Foster – 2011 Fantasy Football Top Pick

Any time a running back has the number of carries and combined touches Arian Foster did in 2010, you have to be a little leery of that player the next year. Look what happened with Chris Johnson in 2010: he was good, but not the player he was in 2009. The same thing could happen to Foster.

On the flip side, Foster is one a better offense than Chris Johnson was and he’s running behind a better offensive line. And with Matt Schaub throwing the ball and Andre Johnson soaking up defenders in the passing game, Arian Foster is surrounded by a better skill position cast. The two touchdowns in a little over a quarter of the 2nd preseason game was enough to remind me of ’10.

Adrian Peterson – Top Pick in 2011

Adrian Peterson is seen as the “safe pick” among the Top 3 in 2011, but is he? Donovan McNabb is in town, and a 30-something McNabb is probably better than a 40 year old Brett Favre. Sidney Rice has departed for Seattle, while Percy Harvin is expected to step up as the #1 WR in Minnesota. So the offensive cast may be depleted, but the quarterback might be more efficient. This is a wash. The defense should take a hit, as the Williams brothers didn’t get good news when the collective bargaining agreement didn’t settle their longstanding court case with the NFL and Ray Edwards left for the Falcons in free agency.

The real question is whether Peterson stands up to the pounding. As a big back who runs upright and takes a lot of hits, it’s only a matter of time before Peterson suffers some kind of injury on the ballfield. Peterson came into the league with injury questions, yet they’ve never surfaced. Unlike Ladainian Tomlinson and Barry Sanders, the two “Best in the NFL” before him, Adrian Peterson doesn’t avoid contact. That’s bound to catch up eventually.

Chris Johnson – #3 Pick in 2011-12

I don’t know that I would spend the #3 pick in the draft on on Chris Johnson this year. I’m a big fan of Chris Johnson. I drafted him with my usual foresight in his breakout 2009 year and have followed the man closely since. But there’s a catch this year.

His contact holdout puts the cohesion of the offense in jeopardy, but it does something more: it could put him at injury risk. You’ll find a long history of players who held out of camp, then got injured once they returned to action without the rigors of camp to get them ready for the season. Put that together with the heaviest workload in the NFL over the past two seasons and Chris Johnson is an injury waiting to happen.

Jamaal Charles – 1st Rounder in 2011

Jamaal Charles has ascended into the high first round for the first time. Also for the first time, he’s the declared #1 running back in Kansas City. When he’s been on the field for long stretches in 2009 and 2010, Jamaal Charles has been one of the most productive backs in the NFL. Now Charles gets his chance to shine. With Thomas Jones and Dexter McCluster able to spell him, but not challenge for real carries, Jamaal Charles should be in perfect position to be worth a Top 5 pick.

Ray Rice – Flying Under the Radar

No one has flown under the radar more than Ray Rice these past couple of seasons. Rice is one of the top backs on one of the top teams in the NFL, but he’s largely anonymous outside of Baltimore and outside of fantasy football draft rooms. Even at that, Ray Rice as seen as a nice #5 runner, but not really the top guy in the league.

It’s my contention that, if you’re good enough to be the #5 guy in fantasy football, you’re good enough to be #1. Everything just has to come together. The 2010 season for Ray Rice might be skewed by the fact he was injured much of the season with nagging injuries. Fully healthy in 2011-2012, Ray Rice could become a Top 3 back.

LeSean McCoy – Top Fantasy Football Pick

LeSean McCoy was a Top 3 back in many scoring systems in 2010. In more than one league I was in, McCoy was the 3rd round selection who performed like a first rounder and helped a team win a league title. Still, he’s sitting at the 5th or 6th spot on most draft boards. I saw him slide into the 12th spot in one draft (full of knuckleheads, I’ll admit).

McCoy is in a top offense. He’s coming into his third year. Lesean McCoy has everything to help him become a top pick in fantasy football. Some worry that a Michael Vick injury could jeopardize everything with the Eagles, having traded their quarterback depth. But that might not affect McCoy as much as it would Jackson or Maclin. Draft Lesean McCoy without qualms, then draft his backup (Ronnie Brown) in the mid-to-late rounds.